CRM

Salesforce ($CRM) Stock Plunges 40% Despite AI Surge...Starboard Stake Increase Fuels Turnaround Hopes

12/18/2025 22:14

Salesforce ($CRM) is sending mixed signals to investors. After hitting $365 per share in early December, the stock has plunged nearly 40% to $242, raising questions about the disconnect between insider trading patterns and business performance. Salesforce is the leading provider of cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) software, serving over 150,000 customers worldwide with sales, marketing, and service automation solutions. The $241 billion market cap company has been striving to secure next-generation growth drivers through its AI agent platform 'Agentforce.' The most notable pattern is CEO Marc Benioff's daily selling spree. Since July 2025, he has sold 2,250 shares almost daily, cashing out over $150 million. While this is likely part of a pre-planned 10b5-1 trading plan, the market interprets it as management's lack of confidence in the company's outlook. More concerning is the selling pressure from other key insiders. CTO Parker Harris sold 134,662 shares ($31.6 million) in December alone, while Mason Morfit purchased $99.8 million worth of shares in June 2024 only to sell $249.9 million in December, realizing a 150% profit. This massive insider selling has been a key factor weighing on the stock price. However, business performance tells a different story. The company recently raised its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to $41.4-41.5 billion, with Agentforce platform's annual recurring revenue (ARR) surging 114% year-over-year to nearly $1.4 billion. The company has already closed over 8,000 paid Agentforce deals, and its Data Cloud business has surpassed $1 billion in annual revenue. Another signal investors should watch is activist investor Starboard Value's move. Starboard increased its Salesforce stake by nearly 50% in Q2 2025, suggesting they see significant upside potential at current price levels. Starboard previously pushed for changes at Salesforce in 2022, after which the company's profitability improved substantially. There are positive factors investors might consider at current levels. First, AI business acceleration. The Agentforce platform is entering the practical adoption phase among enterprise customers, with sustained growth expected over the coming years. Second, the completion of the $8 billion Informatica acquisition will significantly enhance data integration capabilities. Third, while current stock price remains elevated from early 2024 levels, the recent plunge has considerably reduced valuation concerns. However, risk factors are equally significant. Continued insider selling will likely cap stock appreciation in the near term. Recent security incidents raising customer data exposure concerns also present negative factors. Macroeconomic uncertainty could lead to corporate IT spending cuts, potentially slowing growth momentum. Investors should watch for clear signals of stock recovery. Key turning points include reduced insider selling volume, visible Agentforce revenue growth confirmation, and overall revenue growth returning to double digits. While current levels appear attractive for long-term investors, near-term downside risks cannot be ruled out, requiring a cautious approach.