NEXT

NextDecade($NEXT) Insiders Buy $50M Despite 28% Drop as Hanwha Aerospace Signals LNG Project Momentum

12/16/2025 00:20

NextDecade($NEXT) presents an intriguing situation for investors as major insiders, led by Hanwha Aerospace, are aggressively purchasing shares while the stock has declined approximately 28% since mid-September. NextDecade, developing the Rio Grande LNG terminal in Brownsville, Texas, is a small-cap energy company advancing a 17.61 million tonnes per annum liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project. The company has established its business foundation through long-term supply agreements with global energy giants including Saudi Aramco, TotalEnergies, and Japan's JERA. Notably, the company approved its Final Investment Decision (FID) for Train 4 in September, marking its full entry into the project execution phase. The most notable development is the insider buying activity. Hanwha Aerospace purchased approximately $41.5 million worth of $NEXT shares across 37 transactions from September 23 to December 12. The largest single transaction occurred on December 11, when they bought 8.52 million shares for $4.95 million. Average purchase prices ranged from $5.83 to $6.36 per share, representing significant value relative to the current price of $6.53 (as of September 17). CEO Matthew Schatzman also purchased 281,500 shares for approximately $2.01 million on September 12 at $7.14 per share. While this price is above current levels, it signals management's long-term confidence in the company's value. Schatzman has expressed optimistic projections, forecasting 2% annual growth in natural gas demand over the next 15 years at CERAWeek. The timing of these insider purchases is particularly meaningful. $NEXT shares plummeted approximately 45% from July highs of $12 to September lows of $6.53. This pattern resembles the August 2024 decline when a court invalidated FERC's authorization for the Rio Grande LNG project, causing shares to crash from $8 to the high-$4 range before gradually recovering. However, current circumstances differ significantly from 2024. FERC recommended final environmental approval for the Rio Grande LNG project in July, and the court issued a revised decision in March allowing additional environmental impact reassessment while permitting construction to continue. Most importantly, Train 4's FID approval has substantially reduced project risk. Financial developments also show positive trends. NextDecade secured $1.8 billion in equity commitments from TotalEnergies and Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) for Train 4 construction. TotalEnergies will invest $300 million for a 10% stake, while GIP will invest up to $1.5 billion for 50% ownership. The fixed-price $4.77 billion construction contract with Bechtel remains valid through mid-September. Structural growth in the U.S. LNG market favors $NEXT. U.S. LNG export capacity is expected to triple by 2030, and the $750 billion strategic energy purchase agreement between the EU and U.S. creates new opportunities for American LNG producers. This agreement is anticipated to significantly increase EU imports of U.S. LNG. Key indicators for investors are clear. Positive signals include FERC's final environmental approval announcement, additional long-term supply contracts for Train 5, and increased ownership stakes by major investors like Hanwha Aerospace. Warning signs include rising construction costs, LNG market oversupply concerns, and energy policy uncertainties from U.S. political changes. In an optimistic scenario, smooth Train 4 construction progress and first LNG production in 2027 could catalyze stock revaluation. The base scenario expects gradual recovery from current levels, with continued insider support likely limiting downside risk. However, in a risk scenario, construction delays or additional regulatory changes could create stock price pressure. In conclusion, despite recent price declines, $NEXT demonstrates medium to long-term rebound potential based on strong insider confidence and project advancement. Particularly, Hanwha Aerospace's sustained large-scale purchases likely signal strategic partnership beyond mere financial investment, offering an attractive risk-adjusted return opportunity.