NEXT

NextDecade ($NEXT) CEO Shows Strong Confidence with $2M Share Purchase... What's Behind September's Concentrated Buying?

11/27/2025 02:26

NextDecade Corp ($NEXT) executives and directors have caught investors' attention with their concentrated share purchases in September, particularly CEO Matthew Schatzman's significant $2.01 million investment on September 12, acquiring 281,500 shares at $7.14 per share. NextDecade is a small-cap company developing the Rio Grande LNG export facility in Brownsville, Texas, with a planned capacity of 17.6 million tons per annum. The project has gained strategic importance amid U.S. LNG export expansion policies, securing long-term supply agreements with global energy giants including Saudi Aramco, TotalEnergies, and Japan's JERA. The insider buying extended beyond the CEO. Director William Vrattos purchased a total of 600,000 shares across two transactions on September 12 and 17, while Director Edward Scoggins Jr. added 15,000 shares on September 18. Institutional investor Bardin Hill Investment Partners also participated with a substantial purchase of 357,021 shares on September 16. The combined purchase value exceeded $9 million. This concentrated insider buying wasn't coincidental. NextDecade faced a severe crisis in August 2024 when a federal court vacated FERC's project authorization. The stock plummeted 32% from $7.78 on August 6 to $5.29 the next day, remaining depressed around $5 for several months. However, the situation began reversing in 2025. The court issued a revised judgment in March allowing construction to proceed, and by July, FERC staff recommended final environmental approval. The decisive moment came on September 9 with the approval of the final investment decision (FID) for Train 4, putting the project firmly on track. Strategic partner Hanwha Aerospace's activities are equally noteworthy. The company purchased over 1 million shares on September 23-24, then continued aggressive buying throughout November. From November 11-26, it acquired approximately 3.8 million additional shares across multiple transactions, expanding its total investment to over $16 million. This demonstrates a Korean company's long-term confidence in U.S. LNG projects. Several factors drove insiders' large-scale purchases at this timing. Legal uncertainties have been substantially resolved after a difficult year following the 2024 court defeat. With the project back on a normalization track, insiders likely viewed the current share price as not properly reflecting the company's intrinsic value. LNG market prospects are also positive. Global LNG demand is expected to grow 50% by 2030, with the U.S. already established as the world's largest LNG exporter. NextDecade's secured long-term supply contracts provide stable cash flows for the next 20 years. However, investors should note existing risks. Morgan Stanley downgraded NextDecade from 'Overweight' to 'Equal-weight' on September 12, lowering the price target from $15 to $10, citing high financing costs and lower-than-expected sales and purchase agreement rates for Trains 4 and 5. Large-scale LNG projects face various risks including construction cost increases, rising interest rates, and regulatory changes due to their capital-intensive nature. NextDecade's Train 4 alone requires $4.7 billion in construction costs, making unexpected variables during project execution a possibility. Nevertheless, NextDecade's investment appeal remains significant. The current share price of $6.53 (as of September 17) is below insiders' average purchase price around $7, suggesting potential upside. The CEO's personal investment of over $2 million represents a particularly strong buy signal. Investors should focus on the Train 5 final investment decision timeline. While the company initially targeted a September decision, it has been delayed. Once made, this decision would significantly expand the project scope, likely positively impacting the share price. U.S. natural gas price trends are also crucial variables. Recent winter cold weather forecasts and increasing LNG exports have driven natural gas prices higher, potentially improving LNG project profitability. In conclusion, NextDecade's concentrated insider buying in September signals strong management confidence in project normalization. With legal risks substantially resolved and long-term supply contracts secured, the current share price likely doesn't fully reflect the company's potential value. However, given the execution risks inherent in large capital projects, investors should closely monitor Train 5 investment decisions and construction progress.