VVV
Valvoline ($VVV) President Buys Again at $30.82...Management's Consecutive Bottom-Fishing Signals Attention
11/25/2025 12:57
Sentiment
C-Level
Summary
- Valvoline ($VVV) executives continue buying shares despite price decline, signaling potential bottom formation
- President Lori Flees executed consecutive purchases at declining prices: $39.64→$33.78→$30.82
- Despite FTC regulatory issues and mixed earnings, insider buying reflects management confidence in long-term value
POSITIVE
- Consistent management share purchases signal potential bottom, with president's consecutive buying showing strong conviction
- $400 million share repurchase program demonstrates commitment to shareholder value enhancement
- Q3 earnings beat with EPS of $0.47 vs $0.45 estimate showing operational improvement
- Breeze Autocare acquisition expected to add 162 stores, providing growth catalyst upon completion
NEGATIVE
- FTC requires divestiture of 45 oil change shops in Valvoline-Greenbriar deal, disrupting M&A plans
- Recent Q4 earnings miss analysts' expectations, showing limitations in profitability improvement
- Stock remains weak with ~25% decline from July 2024 peak of $47.60
- Electric vehicle adoption and economic slowdown pose long-term threats to traditional oil change business model
Expert
From an automotive aftermarket perspective, Valvoline's insider buying represents a significant signal. While the industry faces structural changes including EV transition and extended service intervals, management's persistent purchases suggest current pricing excessively reflects these long-term risks. The quick oil change service model continues to generate stable cash flows, and successful M&A expansion could enhance market share and operational efficiency.
Previous Closing Price
$31.32
+0.11(0.35%)
Average Insider Trading Data Over the Past Year
$37.22
Purchase Average Price
$37.56
Sale Average Price
$632.79K
Purchase Amount
$437.83K
Sale Amount
Transaction related to News
Trading Date | Filing Date | Insider | Title | Type | Avg Price | Trans Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11/25/2025 | 11/25/2025 | Sale | $ |
Valvoline ($VVV) executives are sending strong bottom signals through consecutive share purchases, with President Lori Flees notably buying at $39.64 in November 2024, $33.78 in May 2025, and most recently at $30.82 in November 2025. This pattern of increasing purchases as prices decline demonstrates management's strong conviction about the company's intrinsic value. Valvoline operates as a leading automotive services provider in the U.S., primarily through its Valvoline Instant Oil Change chain with over 1,700 service centers nationwide. The company, with a market cap of approximately $3.86 billion, holds a solid position in the automotive aftermarket sector. The stock has declined significantly from its July 2024 peak of $47.60, currently trading around the mid-$30s, representing about a 25% drop from highs. Despite this price weakness, insider buying has been consistent, with Director Charles Sonsteby purchasing 10,000 shares at $39.50 in November 2024, followed by President Flees' systematic accumulation. While some executives have sold shares, including Director Carol Kruse selling 3,740 shares at $36.59 and CLO Julie O'Daniel disposing of 6,000 shares at $37.41 in February 2025, these transactions appear to be part of predetermined trading plans or restricted stock transactions rather than strategic decisions. Earnings results have been mixed, with Q1 2025 revenue of $414 million beating the $400 million estimate, but Q2 EPS of $0.34 missing the $0.36 consensus. Q3 showed improvement with $0.47 EPS beating the $0.45 estimate, though Q4 results again disappointed. Regulatory headwinds present near-term challenges, with the FTC requiring divestiture of 45 oil change shops in the Valvoline-Greenbriar deal worth $625 million. The company also received a second request regarding its proposed Breeze Autocare acquisition, which would add 162 stores. Despite these challenges, management's persistent buying suggests confidence in long-term value creation. Combined with the company's $400 million share repurchase authorization announced in July 2024, this demonstrates commitment to shareholder value enhancement. Key catalysts to watch include resolution of FTC issues, completion of the Breeze Autocare acquisition, and quarterly earnings improvements. The consistent insider buying pattern, particularly at progressively lower prices, suggests the stock may be approaching a bottom, making it worth consideration for value-oriented investors willing to wait through regulatory uncertainties.