GEF

Greif ($GEF) Executives Signal Strong Confidence with Immediate Repurchases at Higher Prices

11/21/2025 21:00

Greif ($GEF) is a global leader in industrial packaging products, manufacturing steel, plastic, fiber, and flexible packaging solutions for diverse industries including chemicals, food and beverage, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals. This small-cap company with approximately $1.65 billion market capitalization is sending intriguing signals that investors should carefully consider. The most notable development is the concentrated insider buying cluster in November 2025 by senior executives. Lawrence Hilsheimer, EVP, exhibited a particularly interesting trading pattern. On November 11, he sold 33,851 shares at $59.58 per share for $2.02 million, then immediately purchased 21,751 shares at $65.50 per share for $1.42 million on November 12. This goes beyond simple portfolio adjustment. More tellingly, he continued making smaller purchases through November 21, demonstrating sustained confidence. Other executives showed similar patterns during the same period. Gary Martz, EVP, sold 5,000 shares on November 12 then immediately repurchased the same quantity at a higher price the same day. This 'sell-then-immediately-buy' pattern suggests tax loss harvesting followed by an immediate desire to rebuild positions, indicating strong conviction about the company's prospects. Greif's stock price has experienced significant volatility since late 2024. After reaching approximately $69 in November 2024, shares declined to near $48 in April 2025, recovered to $69 levels in July, and currently trade in the low $60s. Against this volatile backdrop, management's buying behavior strongly suggests perceived undervaluation at current price levels. Examining recent business developments, the company completed the sale of its containerboard business in September 2025, representing strategic portfolio optimization. This appears to be a move to divest lower-margin segments and focus on core operations. Following the divestiture, the company revised its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $507-517 million. Financially, the company presents mixed signals. While recent quarterly revenue declined slightly, quarterly earnings growth reached an extraordinary 1,497%, likely reflecting one-time factors or restructuring benefits. The company maintains reasonable financial health with a debt-to-equity ratio of 45.66%, current ratio of 1.47, and $256.7 million in cash providing operational flexibility. The industrial packaging industry faces several challenges currently. Raw material price volatility continues alongside ongoing class action litigation alleging price-fixing in the corrugated packaging sector. However, Greif has implemented minimum 6% price increases across its tube and core and protective packaging products, demonstrating proactive margin protection efforts. Valuation metrics present a mixed picture. The P/E ratio of 25.33x appears elevated compared to manufacturing averages but may be justified by recent earnings improvements. P/S ratio of 0.54x and EV/EBITDA of 6.56x appear attractive relative to industry benchmarks. The key catalyst to watch is how restructuring benefits manifest in 2026 performance. Management's concentrated buying likely reflects internal visibility into these improvement prospects. However, broader industry demand softness and raw material cost pressures remain ongoing risk factors. Investors should closely monitor how the containerboard divestiture impacts next quarter's results while considering the strong insider buying signal as a meaningful vote of confidence from those with the best visibility into the company's prospects.