GCBC

Greene County Bancorp ($GCBC): 8 Insiders Buy 23 Times, Yet Stock Remains 35% Below Peak

11/19/2025 21:29

Greene County Bancorp ($GCBC) is a regional bank holding company based in Greene County, New York, providing commercial banking services through Greene County Bank. With a market cap of approximately $376 million, this small regional bank has been expanding its operations into Saratoga County, pursuing growth opportunities. What investors should pay attention to is the stark contrast currently unfolding at $GCBC. While the stock price has fallen more than 35% from its July 2024 high and remains in the $23 range, insiders are actively buying shares. This suggests the current stock price may be significantly undervalued relative to the company's intrinsic value. Particularly notable is the contrast between CFO Michelle Plummer's large-scale selling in June 2024 and the subsequent behavior patterns of other insiders. Plummer sold a total of 12,320 shares for approximately $376,000 in mid-June when the stock was trading in the low $30s. This was impeccable timing, just before the stock rose to $36 in July of that year. However, the situation has completely changed since then. From October 2024 to November 2025, eight insiders made purchases across 23 separate transactions. Director Tejraj Hada has been the most aggressive buyer, purchasing a total of 14,146 shares, including an additional 4,911 shares in November. Nearly all key executives participated in buying, including SVP Nick Barzee, Directors Jay Cahalan and Christopher Cannucciari, President Donald Gibson, and EVP John Antalek. Their average purchase prices mostly ranged between $21-28, similar to or even higher than current stock levels. This indicates that insiders believe there is substantial upside potential even from current prices. The fact that they are putting their own money behind their judgment adds credibility to their assessment. Indeed, the company's fundamentals show the opposite trend from the stock price decline. Q2 2025 net income was $9.33 million, up 39% from $6.73 million in the same period last year, with EPS improving significantly from $0.40 to $0.55. Even more impressive is the negative $880,000 loan loss provision, indicating improved asset quality. The company reflected its confidence in earnings improvement through dividend policy. In July 2025, it increased its annual dividend by 11.1% to $0.40 per share. This is a strong signal that management is confident about sustainable profitability improvements. From a regional banking sector perspective, GCBC's current situation becomes even more intriguing. While regional banks can benefit from net interest margin improvements during rising rate cycles, they also face increased credit risk. However, GCBC is actually reversing loan loss provisions, showing above-average asset quality performance compared to industry peers. Looking at specific metrics investors should consider, quarterly net interest income trends are crucial. The 30% increase from $12.86 million in Q2 2024 to $16.71 million in Q2 2025 is very positive. Additionally, whether regional expansion like the entry into Saratoga County translates into actual deposit growth is an important observation point. However, there are warning signs to watch. Given regional banks' characteristics, they can be sensitive to local economic conditions, and changes in interest rate policy or real estate market downturns could cause direct impact. The limitations of being a small bank also mean liquidity risks and low trading volume should always be considered. Analyzing future scenarios, the most optimistic case would be insiders' judgment proving correct, with fundamental improvements reflected in the stock price. If continuous earnings improvements and dividend increases continue, the stock price could potentially recover to $30-35 levels. The base scenario involves continued box-range trading at current levels with gradual improvement. The most concerning risk scenario would be rapid deterioration in asset quality due to local economic decline or stress in the broader financial system. In conclusion, GCBC represents an intriguing case where the perception gap between insiders and the market is starkly evident. Eight key executives have made 23 separate purchases with their own money, and earnings continue to improve, yet the stock remains in undervalued territory. While this could present an attractive opportunity for investors willing to take risks, the inherent volatility and liquidity risks of small regional banks must always be factored into consideration.