GCBC

Greene County Bancorp ($GCBC): Executive Buying Spree Follows CFO's Sale as Earnings Surge 38% with Dividend Hike

10/30/2025 22:45

Greene County Bancorp ($GCBC) presents a fascinating contrast in insider trading patterns. This regional bank holding company, primarily serving Greene County, New York, with traditional community banking services, has seen divergent signals from its management team. The most striking transaction occurred in June 2024 when CFO Michelle Plummer executed a significant sell-off. Over three days in mid-June, she sold 12,320 shares for approximately $375,000 at an average price of $30.4 per share, near the stock's peak levels at the time. However, the narrative took a complete turn afterward. Starting in October 2024, other executives began aggressive buying. SVP Nick Barzee purchased 3,232 shares across three transactions, while Director Tejraj Hada bought 9,000 shares in two separate purchases. Particularly notable are the sustained buying patterns of Directors Jay Cahalan and Christopher Cannucciari. Cahalan purchased 6,044 shares in February and October 2025, while Cannucciari accumulated 1,610 shares across multiple transactions in May and October 2025. President Donald Gibson joined the buying spree in October 2025 with a 1,000-share purchase. The timing of these purchases was strategically astute. Most buying occurred in the mid-to-high $20s range, representing 20-30% discounts from the CFO's selling price. From an investment perspective, executives putting their own money at risk at specific price points sends important signals. The financial performance tells a completely different story. Ironically, after the CFO's sales, company performance dramatically improved. Net income grew from $6.73 million (EPS $0.4) in Q2 2024 to $9.33 million (EPS $0.55) in Q2 2025, a 38% increase. Q1 2025 net income surged 41.7% year-over-year to $8.05 million, achieving record levels in total assets, loans, and deposits. Management's confidence was demonstrated through an 11.1% dividend increase announced in July 2025, raising the annual rate to $0.40 per share. Net interest income expanded from $12.86 million in Q2 2024 to $16.71 million in Q2 2025, while a loan loss provision reversal of -$880,000 indicates improving asset quality. Stock price movement shows a decline from the $36 peak to lows around $21, currently trading in the $23-25 range. However, given the pace of earnings improvement, current valuations appear quite attractive. Considering various scenarios, an optimistic case could see the stock recover above $30 as earnings momentum continues. Management's persistent buying reflects their confidence in this outcome. The base case suggests gradual recovery to the $25-28 range, with dividend yield adding investment appeal. However, risks remain if the CFO's selling rationale becomes problematic or if earnings momentum stalls. The contrasting trading patterns between the CFO and other executives, combined with improving fundamentals, creates a complex but potentially rewarding investment opportunity at current price levels.