TWI

Titan International ($TWI) COO Goes Contrarian with Purchase After Executive Sell-Off... Is $8 the Real Bottom?

08/21/2025 21:43

Titan International ($TWI) is displaying intriguing insider trading patterns that have caught investors' attention. While executives conducted massive sell-offs when the stock peaked above $10 in June-July, the COO recently made a contrarian purchase as shares declined to the $8 range, sending mixed signals to the market. Titan International is a specialized manufacturer of tires and wheels for agricultural, construction, and consumer vehicles, operating across North America, South America, Europe, and Russia/CIS regions. As a small-cap company with a market capitalization of approximately $544 million, it maintains close relationships with major customers like John Deere in the agricultural equipment sector. In January, the company announced a significant three-year supply agreement with Deere & Company, running from November 2024 to October 2027, which analysts viewed as providing stable revenue foundation. The insider trading pattern reveals a stark contrast in executive sentiment. On June 20, CAO Anthony Eheli sold 25,000 shares at $9.24 per share. Then on June 30 and July 1, Director Richard Cashin Jr. sold a total of 276,348 shares at average prices of $10.31-$10.34, cashing out approximately $2.85 million. These sales occurred precisely when the stock was trading near its yearly highs above $10. In sharp contrast, COO Max Narancich purchased 3,500 shares at $8.56 on August 14 - the only insider purchase in the dataset. This contrarian move stands out against the backdrop of other executives' massive sell-offs, particularly as the COO's purchase price of $8.56 closely matches the current trading level around $8.52. The stock price movement validates the timing accuracy of these insider trades. Starting at $7.25 in early June 2025, shares surged to $9.32 on June 9, then continued climbing to peak at $10.86 on July 2. However, shortly after the executive sell-offs, the stock reversed course in mid-July, settling back to the mid-$8 range by August. This pattern typically suggests that executives possess superior knowledge of their company's intrinsic value. The massive sells above $10 likely indicate management viewed those levels as overvalued, while the COO's purchase in the $8 range suggests he sees the current level as potentially undervalued. However, recent financial performance reveals underlying challenges. Q1 2025 adjusted earnings per share dropped to just 1 cent from 29 cents year-over-year, and Q4 2024 EPS fell to 9 cents from 34 cents previously. On a positive note, Q1 revenue increased 1.8% year-over-year to $490.71 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $464.25 million. Industry experts suggest the agricultural equipment market's cyclical nature means current conditions might represent a trough. The long-term Deere contract enhances revenue stability, and the company's North and South American production base provides relatively lower geopolitical risk exposure. From an investment perspective, while the COO's purchase could signal a positive inflection point, investors must consider that insufficient time has passed since other executives' major sell-offs. The agricultural equipment industry's seasonal patterns and demand volatility driven by macroeconomic changes remain key variables to monitor. Analysts currently maintain an average 'buy' rating with a 12-month price target of $11.50, suggesting approximately 35% upside potential from current levels. However, earnings improvement and agricultural market recovery timing will be critical factors. Whether the COO's contrarian purchase represents a genuine bottom signal or simply personal judgment will be validated through upcoming quarterly results and agricultural market trends. Investors should carefully assess whether the mid-$8 level truly represents a floor for the stock.