THRY

Thryv Holdings ($THRY) Chairman Buys $260K in Stock...Bottom Signal After 40% Decline?

08/05/2025 22:50

Small-cap SaaS company Thryv Holdings ($THRY) is drawing investor attention as management engages in heavy insider buying while the stock trades 40% below its recent highs, coinciding with a surprising earnings beat in the latest quarter. Thryv Holdings provides software-as-a-service (SaaS) platforms designed for small and medium-sized businesses. The company's core offerings include customer management, marketing automation, and online booking systems that help local businesses undergo digital transformation to communicate more effectively with customers. While the company expanded its business scope through the acquisition of Infusion Software late last year, this process significantly impacted the stock price. The most notable development is Chairman Joe Walsh's consecutive large-scale purchases. He has bought 18,000 shares this year alone, including an additional 8,000 shares at $12.90 per share on August 1st. This $263,000 investment demonstrates strong confidence in the current price level. Other executives are also consistently purchasing company shares, suggesting an overall optimistic management outlook on the stock's prospects. Alongside insider buying, recent earnings improvement deserves attention. In Q2 results announced on July 30th, Thryv reported adjusted earnings of 31 cents per share, significantly beating Wall Street estimates of 25 cents. This represents more than double the improvement compared to 15 cents in the same period last year. While revenue declined 6.1% year-over-year to $210.47 million, it exceeded analyst expectations. This earnings improvement is significant as it breaks the pattern of consecutive earnings misses. The company consistently underperformed analyst expectations throughout 2024, particularly recording a substantial loss of $2.65 per share in Q3 last year. However, recent quarterly results indicate that the Infusion Software acquisition effects and operational efficiency improvements are becoming visible. Investors should consider several key indicators when evaluating the current situation. First, monitoring whether insider buying continues is crucial. If management maintains confidence in a stock price recovery, additional purchases are likely to follow. Additionally, whether the profitability improvement trend continues in the next quarter is important. Analysts maintain a 'buy' rating with a price target of $22.50, suggesting 46% upside potential from current levels. Clear risk factors exist that warrant attention. High volatility typical of small-cap stocks is the primary concern. As demonstrated by the 22% single-day decline following the discounted stock offering announcement last October, stock reactions to unexpected negative news can be excessive. Moreover, given the SaaS business characteristics, customer churn rates and new customer acquisition speed directly impact performance, making the business particularly vulnerable during economic downturns due to its focus on small business customers. Looking at future scenarios, in an optimistic case, Infusion Software acquisition synergies could materialize fully, resuming revenue growth and continuing profitability improvements. This scenario could enable achievement of analyst price targets. The most likely base scenario involves gradual recovery from current levels. Continued management purchases and operational improvement efforts bearing fruit should lead to gradual stock price appreciation. Conversely, in a risk scenario, if revenue decline trends resume or integration costs exceed expectations, the stock could face additional declines. At the current juncture, Thryv Holdings represents an investment opportunity where risks and opportunities coexist. The 40% stock decline appears to have already reflected significant negative factors, while management's large-scale purchases suggest a potential investment opportunity near the bottom. However, as always with small-cap investments, adequate risk management is necessary, and dollar-cost averaging to hedge against volatility would be prudent.