FOR

Forestar Group ($FOR) CEO Makes Second Major Share Purchase in Three Months Amid 38% Stock Decline, While Directors Continue Selling

05/19/2025 21:02

Forestar Group Inc. ($FOR) CEO Anthony Oxley has made another significant purchase of company shares amid a continuing stock price decline. According to SEC filings, Oxley purchased 4,963 shares at an average price of $20.22 on May 16, investing a total of $100,363.77. This marks Oxley's second substantial share purchase within three months. On February 14, he acquired 4,300 shares at an average price of $23.14, investing approximately $99,504.58. These consecutive purchases suggest the CEO's positive assessment of the company's intrinsic value at current price levels. The recent purchase is particularly noteworthy as it comes while $FOR trades near its 52-week low. Forestar's stock has declined approximately 38% over the past 12 months, falling from $33.94 in early June 2024 to the current $20.22. The stock has shown a steeper decline since January 2025, hitting as low as $18.45 in mid-April. This stock price deterioration is primarily attributable to consecutive quarters of underwhelming financial performance. In its Q1 2025 results announced on April 17, Forestar reported adjusted earnings of 64 cents per share, a 28% decrease from 89 cents in the same period last year. Revenue increased by 5.2% to $351 million but fell short of analyst expectations of $379.6 million. Following this earnings release, the company reduced its fiscal 2025 guidance, lowering its lot delivery target to 15,000-15,500 lots. Looking further back, the Q4 2024 results announced in January 2025 also showed significant declines, with EPS dropping from 76 cents to 32 cents year-over-year and revenue decreasing by 18.1% to $250.40 million. Interestingly, in contrast to the CEO's buying activity, company directors have consistently taken selling positions. Director Elizabeth Parmer sold 1,460 shares at an average price of $20.57 on May 12 and has made several sales over the past year. Another director, Rick Ringler III, sold 2,000 shares each on September 27 and June 27, 2024. These contrasting insider trading patterns may reflect differing internal views about the company's future prospects. Forestar Group, led by CEO Oxley, is a small-cap real estate development company operating land development, real estate, and utility development projects across the United States. The company primarily focuses on supplying land to homebuilders and is therefore highly sensitive to the health of the U.S. housing market. Currently, the U.S. real estate market is facing challenges due to high mortgage rates and housing prices, directly impacting Forestar's business. However, CEO Oxley's recent buying activity could be interpreted as a signal that the current market downturn is temporary and reflects confidence in the company's long-term value. Analyst sentiment remains generally positive, with an average rating of 'strong buy,' though the price target has been lowered from $41.00 in July 2024 to $32.00 in April 2025. Based on the current stock price, this suggests an upside potential of approximately 58%. Investors may view CEO Oxley's consecutive purchases as a positive signal but should consider them alongside the company's underperforming results, lowered guidance, and directors' selling activity. In particular, the timing and strength of the U.S. housing market recovery are expected to have a decisive impact on Forestar's future performance.

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