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NBTB

NBT Bancorp($NBTB) Executives Reverse Course with Strategic Buys Following Directors' Massive Selling - Q1 Results Beat Expectations Amid Banking Volatility

05/02/2025 04:32

Sentiment

Summary

  • NBT Bancorp($NBTB) directors executed large-scale selling between September-December 2024 when the stock was trading at $43-$51, while executives switched to buying in early 2025 after the price declined to $43-$48.
  • Recent Q1 2025 results showed EPS of $0.80 (+17.6% YoY), exceeding expectations ($0.74) and demonstrating performance improvement following executives' March purchases.
  • Analysts maintain an average 'buy' rating with a $50 price target, projecting 17% annual growth compared to the banking industry average of 7.1%.

POSITIVE

  • Recent purchases by President Scott Kingsley and Director Heidi Hoeller demonstrate management's confidence in the current stock price level.
  • Q1 2025 EPS of $0.80 exceeded expectations of $0.74, showing 17.6% annual growth.
  • The $236M acquisition of Evans Bancorp demonstrates a long-term growth strategy through expansion in western New York.
  • Projected revenue growth of 17% annually over the next two years significantly outpaces the U.S. banking industry average of 7.1%.
  • Current P/E of 14.06 and dividend yield of 3.19% offer relatively attractive valuation metrics.

NEGATIVE

  • Massive selling by multiple directors (over 230,000 shares total) in late 2024 is a concern.
  • Q4 2024 non-interest expenses increased by 13.7% to $100.8 million, exceeding expectations.
  • Recent increase in net charge-offs could indicate potential credit risk.
  • President Trump's tariff policies and U.S. dollar weakness contribute to overall economic uncertainty.

Expert

The regional banking sector is seeking differentiated growth opportunities despite interest rate cut pressures and economic slowdown concerns. NBT Bancorp's insider buying patterns and performance improvement are positive, but recent increases in loan loss provisions and operating expenses warrant caution. Whether the scale expansion through the Evans Bancorp acquisition can generate synergies will be key to future stock direction.

Previous Closing Price

$42.3

-1.38(3.16%)

Average Insider Trading Data Over the Past Year

$43.56

Purchase Average Price

$46.14

Sale Average Price

$311.08K

Purchase Amount

$11M

Sale Amount

Transaction related to News

Trading Date

Filing Date

Insider

Title

Type

Avg. Price

Trans. Value

05/22/2025

05/22/2025

Sale

$

As shares of New York-based regional bank NBT Bancorp Inc. ($NBTB) have shown significant volatility in recent months, insider trading patterns have caught investors' attention. The stark contrast between massive director sales in late 2024 and executive purchases in early 2025 is sending important signals to the market. The small-cap financial stock, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.9 billion, has experienced considerable price fluctuations over the past 12 months. The stock surged from $35 to $48 between mid-July and early August 2024, then climbed above $51 in November, hitting a 52-week high. However, in 2025, shares weakened, falling to around $39 in March and early April before recently rebounding to the $42 level. The most striking insider trading pattern was the large-scale selling by directors from September through December 2024. During this period, Director V. Daniel Robinson II sold a total of 150,000 shares (worth approximately $6.65 million), while Director Timothy E. Delaney divested 40,000 shares (about $2.06 million), Director John H. Watt Jr. sold 30,000 shares (roughly $1.4 million), and Director Jack H. Webb sold 10,000 shares (approximately $500,000). These sales occurred while $NBTB was trading in the $43 to $51 range. Notably, this significant selling coincided with NBT Bancorp's September 2024 announcement of its acquisition of Evans Bancorp for approximately $236 million. This acquisition aimed to expand the company's presence in western New York, and the stock rose further following the announcement. In contrast, insider trading patterns changed dramatically in 2025. As the stock price declined, President Scott Allen Kingsley purchased 2,000 shares (about $90,000) on March 5, while Director Heidi Hoeller acquired 678 shares on February 7 and an additional 2,553 shares on April 29, for a total of 3,231 shares (approximately $143,000). These purchases occurred when the stock had dropped to the $43-$48 range. This shift in insider trading patterns correlates with the company's performance trends. In late January 2025, NBT Bancorp reported Q4 2024 earnings with EPS of $0.76, slightly below expectations, and non-interest expenses increased by 13.7% to $100.8 million, raising investor concerns. Following this announcement, the stock dropped 6.4% in a single day. However, Q1 2025 results announced in late April showed remarkable improvement. EPS increased by 17.6% year-over-year to $0.80, exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.74, while revenue grew by 10% to $154.68 million. This performance improvement following the executives' March purchases suggests they bought shares based on confidence in the company's future performance. Meanwhile, the U.S. market in early 2025 experienced increased volatility due to President Trump's tariff policies and disappointing job reports. Particularly on April 4, the U.S. dollar fell by approximately 1.7%—the largest daily decline since November 2022—following Trump's announcement of new tariffs. Against this backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, $NBTB insiders' decision to purchase shares may be interpreted as a strong signal of confidence in their company's value. Currently, analysts maintain an average 'buy' rating on $NBTB with a 12-month price target of $50, implying approximately 18% upside from the current price. Additionally, NBT Bancorp is projected to achieve an average revenue growth rate of approximately 17% per annum over the next two years, significantly outpacing the anticipated 7.1% growth for the broader U.S. banking industry. $NBTB's current P/E ratio of 14.06 appears reasonable compared to industry peers, and its 3.19% dividend yield may attract income-focused investors. However, a recent increase in net charge-offs could indicate potential credit risk, warranting caution from investors. In conclusion, the recent trading patterns of NBT Bancorp insiders can be summarized as directors' large-scale selling during perceived overvaluation in late 2024, followed by executives' buying during perceived undervaluation in early 2025. The recent purchases by executives, coupled with the strong Q1 performance, suggest the current price level may represent an attractive entry point. However, given ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties in the U.S., investors should monitor future insider trading patterns and the progress of the Evans Bancorp integration.

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